Price Are Up But Homes Are In Short Supply

Julie Schmit, USA TODAY January 28, 2013

The supply of homes for sale has been shrinking for six months and shows no improvement so far in January — a bad sign for buyers.

Listings of existing homes for sale were down 14% year-over-year in the first two weeks of January, according to Realtor.com, which tracks 146 markets nationwide.

In Phoenix, where prices were up 24% in November from a year earlier, new listings through the first three weeks of January hit their lowest level in 13 years, says Mike Orr, real estate expert at the W.P. Carey School of Business at Arizona State University.

That's bad news for buyers, and it means "prices need to go up more" to bring more sellers to market, Orr says.

Nationwide, the supply of existing homes for sale fell to 4.4 months in December, based on the current monthly sales pace, says the National Association of Realtors. That's the lowest level in more than seven years. A six-month supply is generally considered balanced between buyers and sellers.

Home prices in November were 7.4% higher on average than a year earlier, according to CoreLogic. Real estate experts had expected that rising prices would spur more sellers trapped by years of falling prices.

Instead, January's listing data "is the same sad story," says Glenn Kelman, CEO of online brokerage Redfin. If sellers don't have to sell, "they're holding on, thinking they'll wait for prices to go up even more."

Redfin's data, covering 19 major markets mostly in the West, shows new listings down 29% the first two weeks of January vs. last year.

Scarce sellers aren't the only driver of shrinking supplies. There are fewer distressed properties for sale. Foreclosure sales were down 7% through the first nine months of last year from the same period in 2011, RealtyTrac says.

Meanwhile, demand is up. Existing home sales were up 9.2% last year, NAR's preliminary data show. New-home sales rose almost 20% in 2012, the government reported Friday, while supply fell to 4.9 months in December from 5.4 months a year before.

New home construction is still weak. In each of the past three years, builders completed fewer than 500,000 single-family homes. That's less than half the number built annually between 1993 and 2007, according to the Census Bureau.

Home builders would need to double production this year to alleviate the tight supply, estimates Lawrence Yun, NAR's chief economist. That's not expected.

Home supplies nationally will stay at about the five-month level much of the year, Yun predicts.

Some markets are far below that.

California's supply of existing single-family homes for sale stood at 2.6 months in December, the California Association of Realtors says.

"Nobody is selling because no one has anywhere to go," says Barbara Hendrickson, of Red Oak Realty in Berkeley, in the San Francisco Bay Area, which had a 1.8-month supply in December.

The low supply is feeding bidding wars. One of Hendrickson's clients recently lost a bid despite offering $130,000 above the home's $775,000 asking price, Hendrickson says.

Whether the supply of homes for sale will expand to meet rising demand is a "big question for the market" in 2013, says Jed Kolko, economist with real estate website Trulia.

This year is also the first since the housing bust began that falling inventories are not necessarily a good thing, he says.

Listings may still swell in time for the busy spring selling season, says Stan Humphries, Zillow economist.

He says listing activity next month will be key. If it doesn't pick up by then, the spring season is likely to bring a lot of price increases, he says.

CLICK HERE for John Petel's website

CLICK HERE to link to this article

Shell Festival Visitors To Receive Bonus

This year when visitors attend the 76^th Annual Sanibel Festival and enter the Sanibel Shell Show, they will receive an added bonus. The Sanibel-Captiva Shell Club has always had the support of The Bailey-Matthews Shell Museum, but this year the museum has increased the level of their support of the even more. Anyone who donates the requested $5 for admission to the Shell Show will also be granted free admission to the Bailey-Matthews Museum during the duration of the Shell Festival, a $9 value. The dates for the upcoming Shell Festival are March 7, 8 and 9.

The Sanibel Shell festival is the major fundraising event of the year for both the Sanibel Community Association and the Sanibel-Captiva Shell Club. Funds raised by the sale of seashells and fossils in the shell tent and by the sale of artistic shell craft items are used to maintain The Community House. Funds raised by admission donations are given out in the form of grants to several local educational and conservation organizations, including a scholarship fund at the University of South Florida.

Island Sun (February 15, 2013)

Home Prices Rising in More Markets

The recovery in real-estate values is accelerating, as more and more markets post gains in median home sale prices.

The National Association of Realtors reported Monday that the U.S. median home price rose 10% to $178,900 between the fourth quarter of 2011 and the fourth quarter of 2012. That’s the biggest yearly gain in the median price since the fourth quarter of 2005.

Of the 152 metro areas examined by the NAR, 133 posted yearly gains in median home price, while prices fell in 19 markets. In the third quarter of 2012, 120 markets showed yearly gains, while a year ago, in the fourth quarter of 2011, just 29 markets nationwide had posted annual median price gains.

“Home sales are on a sustained uptrend,” said Lawrence Yun, the trade group’s chief economist. “Home sales are being fueled by a pent-up demand and job creation, along with still favorable affordability conditions and rents rising at faster rates. Our population has been growing faster than overall housing stock, so supply and demand dynamics are very much at play.”

Housing markets in Western states and markets that were coming off of a low bottom after steep home price declines saw the biggest gains. Phoenix, which fits both of those descriptions, led the gainers, with prices rising 33.9%, followed by Detroit (31.3%), San Francisco (28.3%), Cape Coral, Fla. (25.8%) and San Jose (24.8%).

Of the handful of markets where prices still falling, the upstate New York town of Kingston was the worst (-7.9%), followed by Kankakee, Ill. (-7.0%), Erie, Penn. (-6.1%), Binghamton, N.Y., (-5.7%) and Rockford, Ill. (-4.8%).

Overall, median prices in the West region rose the most–by 20.1%–followed by the Midwest (9.2%), the South (9.1%) and the Northeast (0.7%).

 Source: http://blogs.wsj.com/developments/2013/02/11/home-prices-rising-in-more-markets/?mod=google_news_blog

CLICK HERE to visit John Petel's website.

John Petel's Latest News!

We have an exciting announcement; Mark and Teresa Baker and I have teamed up to bring you the most extensive and personal customer service on or off island to help you sell your home, or to help you find a new one. 

We have all held executive positions in industry with both Mark and I previously owning successful companies. We offer a business perspective, and years of marketing and sales success to help our clients. We truly believe that the power of combining our proven experience, and the synergy of merging our individual strengths will set a new standard in Real Estate excellence. You now get THREE hard working, professional and ethical Realtors for the price of one to help you achieve a successful and stress free result.

Our goal is not to make us Number 1 but to make YOU, our customers, Number 1 in Real Estate!

Sincerely, John Petel

CLICK HERE for the Team Petel website

CLICK HERE for Mark & Teresa Baker's website

Economist Optimistic About 2013

WASHINGTON – Feb. 11, 2013 – The nation’s economy and job-creating engine will start to purr later this year as business activity picks up – more than offsetting federal government cutbacks, predict economists surveyed by USA Today.

After starting the year slowly, the economy will shift into a higher gear this summer and then grow for the next nine months at the fastest pace in three years, according to the median estimates of 46 economists.

“I think we’re really on the verge of this becoming a self-sustaining recovery,” says Richard Moody, chief economist at Regions Bank.

The economists expect average monthly job gains of 171,000, with the pace quickening late this year. They expect unemployment to fall from 7.9 percent to 7.5 percent by year’s end. In October, economists surveyed predicted average monthly gains of 155,000 jobs.

Several said they raised their forecasts in part after the government this month revised up its estimate of average monthly job growth from 153,000 each of the past two years to 175,000 in 2011 and 181,000 in 2012.

The revisions reflect a job market that’s expanding more rapidly than previously believed, Moody says.

After gaining an average of 157,000 jobs a month in the first quarter, the economy will gradually gather force and add 184,000 a month by the fourth quarter, the economists say.

The first half of 2013 is expected to be sluggish as government spending cuts dampen growth and a payroll tax increase crimps consumer spending. Those surveyed expect the economy to grow at less than a 2 percent annual rate the first six months of 2013.

But Congress and the White House averted a worse fate by agreeing in January to keep income taxes stable for households earning less than $450,000 a year. Thirty-seven percent of the economists are more optimistic about this year’s outlook than they were three months ago.

What’s more, the economists expect the effects of the federal cuts to fade by the fourth quarter, with growth picking up to a 2.7 percent pace. They say the housing market is rebounding, a rising stock market is boosting consumer wealth, the European financial crisis is easing and Corporate America is cash-rich.

Allen Sinai of Decision Economics says the most positive development is that households have worked off much of the debt that hampered their spending in recent years. That, he says, is allowing the Federal Reserve’s low-interest-rate policies to finally have an impact through rising home and auto sales.

Some remain cautious. ITG chief economist Steve Blitz say it’s unlikely consumers will return to their free-spending ways.

Source: http://www.floridarealtors.org/NewsAndEvents/article.cfm?id=287376

CLICK HERE to visist John Petel's website.

Around The Islands With Anne

When Valentine’s Day Bookends A Weekend, It’s Typically good for Both Restaurants and Diners

By Anne Mitchell

According to a new survey released this week by OpenTable, a leading provider of online restaurant reservations, restaurants are poised to be busy with diners celebrating love not only on Thursday, February 14, but on the weekend following Valentine’s Day. Diners also indicated that they plan to celebrate in a big way with a projected check average of $139, which is 63 percent more than the typical OpenTable check of $85 per couple.

For island restaurants, this most romantic of holidays this year offers the possibility of a three-day dining opportunity – but also points up the need to make reservations as soon as possible. Valentine’s Day falls at the peak of winter high season, and Sanibel and Captiva restaurants are jammed every night.

The survey also examined dating habits and trends related to the busiest holiday for dining out.

·         51 percent of respondents said they plan to dine out on Thursday, February 12, while 35 percent said they plan to celebrate Valentine’s Day on Friday, February 15, or Saturday, February 16

·         5 percent of diners said they plan to celebrate on Wednesday, February 13

·         8 percent of respondents plan on dining out more than once for Valentine’s Day

Island restaurants – many of them more romantic than most – are ready to offer special hospitality to make the occasion special.

For example, Traditions on the Beach at the Island Inn has planned an evening of dinner with gulf front views, dancing, live entertainment and perhaps even a sunset stroll on the beach if you time it right. A complimentary long stem rose will be given to each Valentine.

Traditions is located steps from the water. If you want to be sure of an after-dinner stroll on the beach, book the 5 to 5:30 p.m. seating. Dinner specials will be served in addition to the regular menu.

For those who want to dance or just listen to romantic ballads, Pianoman Joe McCormick will be playing popular favorites, smooth vocal stylings, R&B jazz and pop.

Traditions is housed in the historic Island Inn at 3111 West Gulf Drive, phone 472-4559.

Cupid is expected to boost the sale of jewelry this year, too.

The 2013 Valentine’s Day spending survey conducted by BIGinsight for the National Retail Federation found that those who intend to purchase jewelry as a gift accounted for 19.7 percent of shoppers and that figure is up from 18.9 percent in 2012, according to the survey. The NRF expects sales of jewelry and watches to increase 7 percent year on year for Valentine’s Day at $4.4 billion.

Lily & Co. Jewelry Gallery on Sanibel is ready for love. The store will celebrateromance, fine jewelry and fine art with five days of special events the week of Valentine’s Day.

For the fifth year, the Sanibel jewelry store has geared up to help men make perfect choices for the Valentines with a four-day Save The Males event February 11 to 14. Receive Godiva chocolates, a Valentine’s card and roses from Floral Artistry with any purchase. Make a purchase of over $500 and receive the Platinum Valentine’s Gift package, which includes all of the above, plus dinner for two at Trader’s Store & Café on Sanibel.

Lily & Co co-owner Dan Schuyler calls it, “a one-stop shop to create that perfect romantic evening.”

During Save The males, Lily & Co will host a trunk show on Tuesday, February 12 from 10 a.m. to 5 p.m. with award-winning designer Denny Wong showcasing the Hong Kong native’s entire line of elegant pieces. Since 1974, Wong has made Hawaii his home, where his passion of jewelry design and love for the islands unite to create many fine lines of jewelry. Hawaiian-themed fare and refreshments will be service.

Also, Sanibel artist Myra Roberts will unveil her new collection during a cocktail reception from 5 to 9 p.m. on Friday, February 15 at Lily & Co. Roberts is known for her vintage-style oil paintings that convey the mood and style of the 1920s to the 1950s. In her new collection, Roberts introduces glittery iridescent mermaids.

Roberts’ new Tamiami painting will be up for raffle during the reception with proceeds benefiting Friends In Service Here (FISH) of Sanibel. Tickets are $25 each and can be purchased at Lily & Co. The winner will be announced at the close of the reception and does not need to be present to win.

Lily & Co is now carrying Nantucket Lightship Baskets handmade by Martha Lawrence, a third generation of a family of artists who draw inspiration from the whaling history of Nantucket.

“When you purchase one of her baskets, you are taking home a piece of history,” said Schuyler.” It is like when people visit Sanibel to go shelling; people go to Nantucket to take home a piece of the island through baskets. They represent the culture of its era.”

Lily & Co. is at 520 Tarpon Bay Road, Sanibel, phone 472-2888.

You’ve probably noticed the proliferation of stand-up paddleboards. This is perhaps the fastest growing sport since snowboarding.

If you’re interested in learning the techniques, YOLO Watersports on Captiva is holding classes on Sundays at 10 a.m. Participants are asked to arrive by 9:45 a.m. The cost is $30 per student. This is a one-hour session with yoga instructor Micaela Solomon.  This class includes use of a stand-up paddle.

YOLO offers a wide variety of boards for every age and skill level, from beginner to advanced. According to YOLO owner Marcel Ventura, “It is the perfect combination of surfing and traditional canoeing or kayaking. Using a canoe-like paddle and standing atop a larger version of a traditional longboard surfboard, paddlers push themselves through the water with perfectly choreographed side to side paddle storkes.”

He added, “Stand-up paddling offers a phenomenal core workout with a cadence much like swimming or cycling.”

Reservations for the classes may be made by calling 472-9656. YOLO – which is an acronym for You Only Live Once – is at 11534 Andy Rosse Lane, Captiva.

Island Sun (February 8, 2013)

Today on Sanibel

"The three great elemental sounds in nature are 

the sound of rain, the sound of wind in a primeval wood, 

and the sound of outer ocean on a beach." 

~ Henry Beston ~

Let John Petel help you find the perfect spot in Southwest Florida. Click Here for our website.

West Gulf Drive ~ February 6th